Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence
I spent the past decade inside and outside the US Intelligence Community trying to understand sanctions evasion networks and the facilitators that allow money to move across jurisdictions. These days, I do it independently with public data.
At some point in my career, someone told me that the intelligence world tends to fall in love with the solution rather than the problem. That line stuck with me for a very long time. A lot of this work involves resisting the urge to apply old solutions to new problems, applying a new perspective.
Many of the investigations here start small: a payment chain that doesn’t make sense, a shell company registered in the wrong place, a bank becoming profitable at exactly the weirdest time. From there, I try to apply a new perspective to what is going on.
Before working independently, I built and led a UK analysis team at an In-Q-Tel backed firm. Since then, my work supported governments, private sector, and investigative media. This work has been cited in Bloomberg, The Hill, and The Kyiv Post.
The name comes from a Carl Sagan line I’ve always liked: “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” In this kind of work, I’ve often found that what’s missing is the most impactful.
Outside of getting wrapped up in research, I’m an avid cyclist, fan of punk rock, and someone who has spent far too much time rewatching La Haine and Bad Boys II.
Why subscribe?
Most of my work starts quietly after staring at data into the early hours of the morning. As simple as an odd payment route, a company in the wrong place, a bank that suddenly appears everywhere at once.
Following those threads takes time and your support helps me continue doing this work independently.
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